BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+7 DRAFTKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card at Russia. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to win a lot of cash from this week contemplating it is a smaller card and starts at 10:15am ET. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will be distributed between all 100 entries that match. I will try to receive my 2nd and 3rd chairs this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those overly hard. I’ll probably stick to the top GPP this week and then throw 100 or so entries at the $25k decoration, and then I will probably have a few shots at the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into money games.
With that said, let’s get to a few plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Roxanne Modafferi — $6,900
I really don’t think there are any cash locks this week, so I needed to bring a cash strategy I use a lot of the moment, which can be punting in money and accepting a loss. I really don’t think Roxy gets the win here, but she is just $6.9k and I think she gets 15-minutes of action. I like the flooring that comes with this and punting along with her cheap cost enables us to fit in more of the favorites that are higher with our other five spots. We do not want 6 wins in money games, so I don’t believe we will need to try for this. I like playing money games if I can lock 25-35 points at a reduction from Roxy in her cheap price I am totally ok with that. I always look for 4 wins in money and above 350-400 DK points. That’s my goal weekly. Let everyone else make the mistakes and just shoot for a score that may conquer 50 percent or more of this field.
GPP drama of the week — Alistair Overeem — $8,900
This really is an all-in struggle for GPPs in my view and I enjoy Overeem as one of my best plays of the week. Oleinik took this fight on short notice so I would be shocked to see this go all 5 rounds. I also think Overeem will be too fast for him to get takedowns, and Overeem is amounts ahead of him at the game that is spectacular. The sole shot Oleinik has of winning on the feet is by landing a haymaker and knocking Overeem out. Or, get a standing entry. Other than those two results, Overeem will smoke him on the feet. I also think Overeem can work his way back to his feet if he is taken down and the longer Oleinik shoots for takedowns the faster he will gas out. I like the -175 ITD line which is included with Overeem here and I think he gets a finish in around 1 or 2. That should provide us near 100 DK points if not more, and I want that in a lot of my own GPP lineups.
Underdog play of the week — Rafael Fiziev — $7,700
Fiziev is no more the underdog on the gambling line (-120) however DraftKings salaries do not change once they’re released. We get Fiziev here for $800 cheaper than Mustafaev and he is favored to get the win. I was really impressed with what I saw out of this child and that I agree with the line motion. I really do think he gets the win here, but it is the DK worth that we would like to make certain to get exposure to this weekend. I think he’s a great play in cash games with the present price and that I expect to be overweight on him GPPs too. We have to roster underdogs in our lineups and if we could use a popular as among those”underdogs” I am usually on board for that.
Fade of this week — Antonina Shevchenko ($9,300)
Antonina Shevchenko is my fade of the week for her $9.3k price tag. I do think she has the win here since I said earlier, I simply don’t see the way she’ll pay off that salary with no finish. I really don’t see her shooting for any takedowns in this match, and I don’t want to rely on her getting knockdown points either. So, we are only likely to be getting 0.5 points per significant attack, and the 30-point win bonus if she wins a choice. If that is true, we would want her to land over 126 sig strikes just to get more than 10x worth. I don’t see that being the case and I believe she more likely scores 80-85 DK points at a decision win. At her wages, that won’t win anybody the big $25k. That’s the prize I am shooting so that’s why she is my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link as well. I’m 69-41 for +237.39u (+$23,739) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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